Observations from World Hydrogen Week, Copenhagen

Hydrogen has worn many hats over the past two decades: a silver bullet, a distraction, and everything in between. As far back as 2003, US President George W. Bush pledged US$1.2 billion for hydrogen, promising that children born that year would one day drive hydrogen-fuelled cars.

Two decades later, the automotive roadmap has shifted. This year, economic advisers to the French and German governments recommended prioritising battery-electric trucks for road freight, cautioning against large-scale hydrogen roll-out unless clearly justified. As the debate continues, questions remain about how hydrogen can become mainstream and when policy will align with investability.

At World Hydrogen Week, I moderated a discussion with William Tebbit of Ryze Power, focusing on delivery. Ryze currently supplies hydrogen to paying customers and installs on-site equipment and infrastructure to ensure reliable supply. Several key points emerged from our conversation, many echoing GIIA’s 2024 hydrogen report.

Offtake is decisive

Technology is not the binding constraint. Hydrogen as a fuel was first formally identified in 1783; the real challenge lies in securing long-term customers. Projects advance quickly when counterparties sign 10- to 15-year contracts with indexed floors, take-or-pay terms, and credible credit support. Without these, projects rely solely on equity and struggle to scale.

Execution depends on the boring bits

Compression, trailers, metering, water and power availability, permitting, and safety cases turn pilot projects into repeatable cash flow. These are the risks lenders assess first.

Early use cases must be pragmatic

While policy seems to be shifting away from transport, more durable projects focus on industrial feedstocks and synthetic fuels. Initiatives that leverage existing liquid-fuel logistics can minimise disruption. Once these gain traction, mobility may follow.

Since GIIA’s 2024 report, policy has evolved to some extent. In April 2025, the UK shortlisted 27 projects under HAR2, providing a clear line of sight to the next production tranche. The Hydrogen-to-Power (H2P) model, due in 2026, will use a Dispatchable Power Agreement-style approach, providing an important signal for peaking and system adequacy.

Across Europe, the second European Hydrogen Bank auction awarded €992 million to five projects, extending demand-side price signals beyond the pilot phase. Germany has also advanced a Hydrogen Acceleration Act to streamline approvals for hydrogen infrastructure. Together, these developments provide what investors need: production, demand, and networks.

However, attracting institutional investors, particularly for debt, remains challenging. Several steps are critical:

• Offtake, offtake, offtake. This remains the top priority. The sector needs more bankable offtake and long-term contracts. The trajectory of EU auctions is encouraging and may eventually enable debt investment at financial close rather than after commissioning.
• Financeable network models. Policymakers must finalise frameworks for transport (RAB-style) and storage (CfD) with tariff visibility and clear timetables for initial allocations to keep H2P on track in the UK. These mechanisms will help de-risk pipelines, caverns, and other assets suitable for long-term infrastructure debt.
• Closer UK–EU collaboration. Certification standards must align so UK hubs can sell into EU demand centres and vice versa. Recent system planning confirms that from 2025 the National Energy System Operator will take a strategic role in hydrogen support and storage, integrating power, gas, and hydrogen planning.

Hydrogen has a vital role to play among the innovations needed to achieve decarbonisation goals. To secure and sustain its place, investors must focus on where it can succeed first: industrial feedstocks and e-fuels that use existing infrastructure; hydrogen-to-power where it offers least-cost system adequacy; cluster models co-locating production, networks, and storage; and targeted mobility solutions.

Investment unlocks when three elements align: robust offtake, financeable network models, and interoperable certification for cross-border trade. These enable early assets to refinance into long-term debt, attracting larger pools of capital.

Policy has progressed, but inconsistency across jurisdictions continues to raise the cost of capital for hydrogen projects. The market now needs stable, clear, technology-neutral policies with appropriate incentives, leaving the rest to competition and execution. If that framework is secured within the next two years, momentum could shift decisively from pilots to final investment decisions, refinancing, and ultimately to portfolio scale.

Hydrogen must focus on the roles it serves best, delivering at a cost of capital that works for long-term infrastructure investors.