Vlad Benn
Senior Policy & Research Manager
Executive Summary
For the first time in history, the world’s top investors rank Canada as the top destination for infrastructure investment. This has been driven by Canada building the best policy architecture in decades aimed at accelerating investment and fully recognizing the potential of its natural resource economy. Should these ambitions be realized, they could propel Canada into being a significant link in global supply chains as geopolitics reshapes those chains and supply shocks become more frequent.
Key Points
- Canada leads the Q2 2026 Pulse at 2.62, ahead of Germany (2.04) and the US (2.00), a striking ascent from mid-table just a year ago, as rising political risk re-rated the US, the market investors had long treated as the default.
- With energy and minerals increasingly used as levers, Canada offers a scarce combination: an abundance of the resources in demand, the largest potash producer, second in uranium and niobium, top-five in ten critical minerals, plus oil, gas, and Pacific LNG, inside a stable, allied, common-law jurisdiction, with west-coast routes to Asia that avoid contested chokepoints.
- The Building Canada Act, the Major Projects Office (over C$125bn of projects), the Clean Electricity investment tax credit and the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Programme together aim to catalyze around C$500bn of private investment.
- The share of GIIA investor members planning to deploy US$1bn or more into Canada has risen from 7% to 46% in twelve months.
- H1 2026 produced just 26 deals worth US$13.3bn against a five-year average of 47 worth US$31.6bn, with refinancing making up 73% of value. Pipeline visibility is now the single biggest barrier members cite, higher than for the UK or EU, and every Canadian barrier score rose in the very wave that put Canada first.
Our presence in Canada
GIIA members have been responsible for building owning and operating Canadian infrastructure for over 25 years and it all started with a social infrastructure public-private partnership (P3) in Nova Scotia back in 1999. Our members have since been involved in US$253 billion of Canadian infrastructure transactions and hold 125+ assets valued at C$127 billion. These are spread across 34 investor members, making Canada our sixth largest market by asset count.
GIIA members are responsible stewards of Canadian infrastructure and their capital has enabled 43,000km of gas distribution and electricity transmission lines, 14GW of traditional and renewable generation capacity (enough to power 6.6 million homes), Canada’s largest container terminals and a growing portfolio of fibre networks and data centres. Social infrastructure, primarily healthcare delivered through the P3 model, was the foundation of Canadian infrastructure investment, however that mix has shifted through the 2020’s towards clean energy, digital and gas pipeline infrastructure.
We publish this update at a critical moment. For the first time since our bi-annual Pulse Survey of global investor sentiment began, GIIA investor members have ranked Canada as the most attractive infrastructure market in the world. Our members are long term investors in and owners of Canadian infrastructure, having stood through cycle after cycle of political ambition. But their message today is consistent; the policy direction in Canada is the best it has been in a decade but translating that into projects investors can actually bid on is the real challenge.
Opportunity in geopolitical uncertainty
Canada holds what a fragmented world needs The world for infrastructure investors has changed over the last six years. Geopolitics has become less predictable and energy and commodities have been used levers, propelling governments across the globe to prioritise energy security, domestic manufacturing and control of or access to the very resources our modern economies depend on. The modern state today, needs a whole basket of resources to stay competitive, from rare earths and critical minerals to the molecules and electrons that power our energy systems, semiconductors and defence equipment.
2026 has brought that dependance into sharp relief, with three powers attempting to press their advantage at once. China, which refines the overwhelming majority of the world’s rare earths, has turned its export licenses into leverage against US tariffs and measure. Iran is using its position at the helm of Hormuz to choke 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and gas, with no lasting resolution in sight. Finally, the US, for so long the anchor and protector of the system has itself become a source of tariff and policy unpredictability. While energy and raw materials have always carried strategic weight and been wielded as instruments of statecraft, what’s new is just how many hands are now using that lever at once.
In 2026, the value of a supplier is no longer set by price alone but by their geopolitical position and reliability, including whether they sit inside a trusted alliance, under stable law, and with a predictable policy environment. Few countries are able to match that description as completely as Canada. It also holds in abundance the very resources a fragmented world has learned quickly that it can no longer take for granted.
Canada holds what a fragmented world needs
Physically, Canada is the world’s largest producer and exporter of potash, second in uranium and niobium and a top five producer of ten critical minerals. Add oil and gas to the mix, along with Pacific LNG capacity and one of the world’s largest hydroelectric fleets and Canada holds precisely the mix of resources a world short of trusted supply is competing for. Cargoes leaving the west coast reach Asia without transiting any contested chokepoints and importantly, their lower shipping emissions intensity is itself becoming a competitive advantage as stricter carbon rules take effect across Europe.
Jurisdictionally, Canada is a stable, open, allied, common law jurisdiction with dollar revenues and deep, liquid capital markets, enforceable contracts and no record of retrospective expropriation. Our Competing for Capital report – comparing ten of the world’s largest infrastructure markets – highlights that for global investors, that combination is scarce, highly prized and exactly what international capital needs in today’s volatile world.
However, these advantages are not, in themselves, the investable opportunity. Ore in the ground and gas in a basin do not provide infrastructure investors with a return. That return is created in those resources reaching a buyer (i.e the corridors, ports, railways, transmission and gas processing and low carbon power) and turned into a contracted export. Importantly, Ottawa’s ambition to process and refine at home, rather than ship raw materials abroad, only deepens the monetization of those resources and creates even more opportunity inside Canada.
Investors have moved Canada to the front of the field
Our latest investor sentiment tracker has propelled Canada to the very top of our rankings, ahead of industrial giant Germany and the US. This was the first time that Canada has led since the survey began. What makes the move so striking is Canada’s recent history within the survey. It was sitting mid-table just one year ago, while the US, which has led or shared the lead for most of the survey history has slipped as political risk increased in a market investors treated as the default investment destination.
Figure 1: Infrastructure investment attractiveness by market (score −5 to +5)
For Canada, this bounce reflects two things. The first is that investors see the current government as materially more pro-private capital than its predecessor, and point to the prospect and opening-up of a large pipeline of infrastructure projects through mechanism such as: The Nation Building program, the Major Projects Office, a commitment of C$115 billion of federal infrastructure investment and procurements such as the Montreal-Toronto high speed rail process that investors singled out as exceptional and well structured. The fact that this process stood out is telling. Transport has been one of Canada’s more difficult assets to underwrite, with projects becoming political footballs, contested between Ottawa and the provinces. This has left a investors wary of both demand and delivery risk. A well-structured HSR procurement is a good sign that these disputes are improving.
The second reason, Canada is being re-priced as a tariff-neutral partner, offering broadly US style exposure without the political risk premium that has now attached itself to the US. GIIA members describe geopolitical instability as actively increasing the attractiveness of assets in safe jurisdictions like Canada.
However, perceived attractiveness is one thing. GIIA members also intend to deploy more capital in Canada off the back of these changes. The share of investors intending to deploy US$1 billion or more into Canada has risen from 7% to 46% over 12 months, while the portion planning to commit under US$100 million has roughly halved. Sentiment towards fundraising has swung from negative to positive in 2026, however the US still remains a better place to raise capital, even though Canada may be a better place to invest. Our members also note that valuation gaps are narrowing as sellers adjust, contributing to the best deal-making backdrop they have seen since 2022.
A macro and fiscal backdrop built for capital
Canada enters the second half of 2026 with a weak but improving economy. The Bank of Canada projects GDP growth of just 0.7% this year, recovering to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028. Even though growth has stalled on the back of new tariffs, elevated trade uncertainty and slower population growth, the Bank expects inflation to ease back towards 2% by early 2027, holding its policy rate at 2.25% for now.
For investors, the near-term growth path favors contracted and regulated cashflows over demand risk. With growth at 0.7% and unemployment near 6.5%, traffic and volume assumptions on demand-exposed assets should be underwritten conservatively for the next 12-18 months, with any recovery likely to be in 2027-28. Availability based P3s, rate regulated utilities and contracted power carry the best cash profile, which helpfully is exactly where the bulk of GIIA members exposure already sits. A stable policy rate and a credible inflation anchor support that too, holding up regulated asset base valuations and availability linked returns.
While the macro is improving, the fiscal stance points to a deliberate reorientation towards capital investment. The federal framework now treats capital investment, rather than day-to-day operating spending, as the justification for borrowing, with that capital stated to account for 100% of the deficit by 2028-29. Making this structural provides a great signal to infrastructure investors who invest long term across political campaigns and careers. However, the remaining risk now lies in the delivery of that ambition.
Policy is shifting decisively pro-infrastructure
Canada has put together the most attractive policy architecture in a decade and crucially much of that is now law. Federal approvals have been accelerating through the Building Canada Act and the Major Project Office, whose projects and strategies represent over C$125 billion of investment. This is heavily weighted towards LNG, critical minerals, ports, transmission and nuclear power. More broadly, Carney’s “investment budget” and capital budgeting framework aim to catalyze around C$500 billion of private investment across the wider programme, with the MPO fast track pipeline at the core of that effort. Investors consistently cite a slow approvals process as the single largest source of return uncertainty and tell us that tackling it directly has an effect on the required risk premium, which is comparable to direct financial support.
Capital and risk sharing tools sit alongside the approval’s reform. The Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit (March 2026) provides a refundable credit of ~15% on eligible electricity capital (non-emitting generation, storage, transmission and interties) which is now usable in projects. The C$10 billion Indigenous Loan Guarantee Programme, which delivered the largest Indigenous loan guarantee in Canada’s history to the New Darlington Nuclear project in June 2026, is aimed at tackling consent risk by aligning long term interest of all parties over the life of an asset.
There are newer measures too. The Canada Strong Fund (a sovereign wealth fund) set up to be a domestic co-investor and a trade corridor strategy aimed at diversifying exports away from the US. These are all welcome additions, but their value will hinge on additionally, making sure to crowd-in private capital and not out. It is worth remembering that in the early days of the Canada Infrastructure Bank (and the UK Infrastructure Bank now the National Wealth Fund) investors were quite critical because these entities operated in the same areas of the market that investors were in and that they did not provide that additionality.
That said not everything is settled. ‘Buy Canadian’ domestic content conditions are tightening across federal and provincial procurement which can complicate foreign sponsorship. Furthermore, much of the actual delivery of these initiatives sits with the provinces (procurement, grid contracting, tariff-setting), meaning that Ottawa’s acceleration alone does not remove the provincial or Indigenous consent risk. The Investment Canada Act adds yet more screening layers with its national security review trained on precisely the sectors this agenda is trying to promote.
It is important to note that some provinces are matching Ottawa’s ambition. Ontario’s Energy for Generations (2025) is the province’s first integrated energy plan to 2050 and meet the province’s rising electricity demand. For investors, it provides a commitment for a five year planning cycle, competitive procurement (up to 17.8GW of new nuclear, C$4.7 billion of hydro refurbishment and projects such as the 1GW pumped storage scheme). This combination is precisely the visibility of pipeline that our members tell us is missing at the federal level and a great reminder that in Canada much of the investment opportunity is decided in the provinces.
Table 2: Policy measures — what’s law and what’s still moving (as of mid-2026)
Can Canada deliver?
While there has been a shift in sentiment due to the significant policy progress, we have not seen, yet, an equally positive shift in deal flow and procurement. Closed activity is running behind the 2021-2025 period for H1, with H1 2026 producing 26 infrastructure deals worth US$13.3 billion, against an H1 five-year average of 47 deals worth US$31.6 billion. What is also interesting is the composition of deals closed, refinancing and additional financing made up 73% of H1 2026 deal value against roughly 23% across 2021-2025. The median deal size rose to about US$547 million from US$200 million.29 Canada’s ambition does match the live deal pipeline where 83% of deals are greenfield, however turning that pipeline into reality could be difficult.
Figure 3a: First-half closings versus the 2021–25 baseline and Figure 3b: Refinancing / recapitalization as a share of deal value
Our investor sentiment data tells a similar story. Even though Canada is the top destination for infrastructure investment, its barriers to investment rose in the very same wave. Pipeline visibility, the difficulty of assessing what will actually come to the market and when, remains the dominant constraint – scoring higher than any barrier recorded for the UK or the EU. A lack of clarity on funding models was also close behind as a further barrier in the market.
Table 4: Pulse survey barriers to investment
Canada’s ability to deliver and absorb infrastructure capital at scale faces external risks too. The Bank of Canada identifies their US relationship and the war in the Middle East as the two most important risks that it tracks, and with the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC now subject to annual review, trade exposed assets (ports, rail, border corridos and export terminals) are left reliant on trade policy certainty that has been hard to come by in 2026. While their agreement remains in force until 2036, the recent US decision not to renew at the first joint review has put the trade agreement into an annual review cycle in which tariff disputes have repeatedly flared and cooled across 2026. This, as yet unresolved back and forth is introducing new rolling policy uncertainty. The fundraising environment could also be a constraint. Closed-end infrastructure funds raised just US$40.8 billion in H1 2026, one of the weakest H1 in recent memory and heavily concentrated amongst the largest managers. While we did see record fundraising in 2025, capital is still favouring platforms, investors and jurisdictions with a demonstrated ability to execute and create the enabling regulatory and policy frameworks needed to absorb infrastructure capital.
Canada has a window of opportunity, success is not guaranteed
Canada’s rise to the top of investor sentiment has not been a surprise. However, investors need to see how Canada will translate its policy and infrastructure ambition into tendered, investable projects that capital can finance and build. The next 12-18 months will be telling, and success will hinge on Canada getting three things right.
The first is a visible, credible pipeline of new projects brought to the market at a predictable cadence. This will allow investors to plan their capital deployment rather than chase a handful of contested assets. The second is clarity on funding models and co-investment terms, how will these new vehicles, tax credits and guarantees combine on a given deal and how will they crowd in private capital and investments. Finally, whether the provincial and Indigenous consent regimes will move in lock-step with the federal acceleration, so that the ambition of a fast track approval process is in practice actually fast.
The opportunity for Canada is there. In a world which is reconfiguring where it sources it resources from, Canada has a chance to cement itself as a key fixture in that global supply chain for decades to come. They have the ambition and the natural resources, but can they turn them into projects that investors can finance and build.